Lumina's model estimates your aurora probability from live space weather data, tuned to your latitude and how far the aurora oval currently sits from you.
- "Plan Mode" probability:
Plan Mode is a forecast of your aurora viewing odds over the next 30–90 minutes — hopefully giving you an idea if now is a good time to put on pants, grab your camera and head to your favourite dark sky spot.
- "Field Mode" probability:
Field Mode is best used when you're already out in the field. It uses the most recent data to give you an idea of your odds over the next 10–15 minutes — useful for deciding whether to stay put, move to another spot, or call it a night.
The large number is your moon-adjusted probability — what you can realistically expect to see given tonight's moon phase and timing. The smaller number beneath it is the raw space-weather probability with no moon adjustment.
Your probability feeds into Lumina's recommendations alongside time of day, moon phase, and cloud forecasts.
Learn more about Lumina Observer's custom aurora probability model.