Lumina's model estimates your aurora probability from live space weather data, tuned to your latitude and how far the aurora oval currently sits from you.
- "Plan Mode" probability:
Plan Mode is a forecast of your aurora viewing odds over the next 30–90 minutes — hopefully giving you an idea if now is a good time to put on pants, grab your camera and head to your favourite dark sky spot.
- "Field Mode" probability:
Field Mode is best used when you're already out in the field. It uses the most recent data to give you an idea of your odds over the next 10–15 minutes — useful for deciding whether to stay put, move to another spot, or call it a night.
The headline is a visibility verdict — whether there is actually anything to see from your location right now:
- Nothing to see — no aurora above your horizon.
- Camera only — faint emission is likely, but it may only show up on a long exposure rather than to the naked eye.
- Visible now — aurora is active at latitudes you can see from here.
- Overhead & strong — an active substorm at or over your latitude.
The verdict is driven by ground magnetometer and substorm activity, not by the probability. The smaller line beneath it is your moon-adjusted visibility odds — the modelled chance of seeing aurora given tonight's moon, with the moon-free figure shown underneath when the moon costs you anything.
Your probability feeds into Lumina's recommendations alongside time of day, moon phase, and cloud forecasts.
Learn more about Lumina Observer's custom aurora probability model.